Moody's Investors Service says in its just-published "Asia-Pacific Regional Outlook - January 2010" that regional sovereign ratings will likely remain resilient to economic risks coming to the foreground as the global economy recovers from the crisis that emanated from the US and Europe.
Regional rating trends were generally positive in 2009 with no downgrades originating exclusively from the global crisis. Indeed, Indonesia and the Philippines were upgraded to Ba2 and Ba3, respectively, last year, while A1 China, Aa2 Hong Kong, and India (its Ba2 local currency government rating only) have positive outlooks.
The three countries with negative outlooks -- Baa1 Thailand, Ba3 Vietnam and B1 Fiji -- have long-standing underlying imbalances or political tensions which precede the onset of the global crisis.
Growth potential in the Asia-Pacific remains robust, benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus programs, liquid banking systems capable of extending credit, intra-regional trade, and foreign exchange reserve defenses built up after the Asian financial crisis of late 1990s.
"Moreover, recovery from the global crisis is appearing similar to previous recovery periods, in contrast to prospects for a sluggish rebound in the US and EU," says Tom Byrne, a Senior Vice President and Regional Credit Officer in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.
"Despite the crucial role played by fiscal stimulus programs in supporting growth in 2009, most Asia-Pacific countries (ex-Japan) have begun or will likely start to wind down expansionary policies this year," says Byrne.
"Because of relatively less encumbered public finances in the region, with the exception of Japan, the build-up in debt over the past couple of years has been relatively moderate, a key factor in supporting the generally positive trend in ratings in Asia-Pacific," says Byrne. "Also, most countries' fiscal positions can absorb a moderate rise in interest rates in the year ahead," Byrne added.
Moody's notes that China is playing a lead role as a driver of growth in the region, while Japan sits on the sideline as it struggles to overcome stubborn deflation and lackluster domestic demand.
Despite the subdued outlook for Japan, the weakest in the region, Asia-Pacific GDP growth may reach 4.9 percent in 2010, up from 1.2 percent in 2009 and slightly stronger than previous recovery periods in
1999 and 2002.
Accordingly, the growth outlook for Asia-Pacific is more robust than that of Europe or Latin America. Excluding Japan, regional GDP growth is expected to be even stronger at 6.6 percent in 2010. This economic robustness has also underpinned the relatively positive rating trend in the region.
Risks to the economic outlook for the region include a relapse in the recovery in external trade and a rise in inflation. The latter could prove challenging to regional policymakers with the return of risk appetite and strong capital inflows, and could prompt more urgent exit strategies from counter-cyclical policies.
In addition, an endogenous risk to the regional outlook is an asset bubble which careens into a boom-bust cycle in China. Moody's central scenario, however, is that regional governments and monetary authorities will maintain a grip on policy, squeezing as tight as needed to prevent an inflationary destabilization.
The January 2010 edition of the "Asia-Pacific Sovereign Outlook" is the first of a regular publication explaining Moody's views and perspectives on sovereign ratings in the region. It is one of three regional outlooks being published by Moody's Sovereign Risk Group this month, the other two covering Latin America and Europe.
Two other regular reports further detail Moody's perspectives on sovereign ratings, the quarterly "Aaa Sovereign Monitor", which focuses on the highest-rated sovereigns, and the annual "Sovereign Risk Outlook", which provides a year-end review of global sovereign ratings activity and perspectives for the coming year. The latest editions of these reports were published in December 2009.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Least developed countries conclude high-level UN meeting with call for greater say in global financial structures
Climate change also significant issue for Asia-Pacific nations
Fifteen least developed countries (LDCs) meeting at a high-level United Nations forum today concluded their review of a decade’s worth of international assistance efforts with suggestions that such countries be given a greater voice in the international financial structures and extra consideration on climate change concerns.
The proposal came at the High-level Asia-Pacific Policy Dialogue on the Brussels Programme of Action (BPoA) for the Least Developed Countries held in Dhaka , Bangladesh. The meeting was held to assess and develop a unified position for Asia and the Pacific ahead of a global review next year in Turkey on progress made in implementing the BPoA, which seeks “to make substantial progress toward halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty and suffering from hunger by 2015 and promote the sustainable development of the LDCs.”
In the Dhaka Outcome Document, ministers and senior officials agreed that the food-fuel and financial crises, along with climate change, exposed the acute vulnerabilities of the Asia-Pacific LDCs to external shocks which could derail their development gains.
They said LDCs need to be assisted with enabling them to benefit from the opportunities arising from trade, investment and financial flows. LDCs also must be represented on the Financial Stability Board established by the G20 and that the reform of the international financial architecture must ensure greater representation of LDCs in the international financial institutions.
Among other provisions in their statement, the officials noted that LDCs are at the frontline of the effects of climate change and should be given due priority in the provision of resources promised in the Copenhagen climate talks last December.
Noeleen Heyzer, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), said the Dhaka meeting represented a turning point in addressing the development issues and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region.
“It constitutes a regional position in support of the interests and aspirations of the Asia-Pacific LDCs to build an inclusive and sustainable development part in partnership with their development partners from the region and beyond,” she said.
The three-day meeting discussed issues and concerns related to reducing poverty and hunger by promoting sustainable and inclusive development in the LDCs; promoting food security through sustainable agriculture; and enhancing the share of LDCs in global trade, aid and financial flows and promoting their productive capacity. Talks will also look at protecting the environment and reducing the vulnerability of the LDCs to climate change, and developing human and institutional capacities to support inclusive and sustainable development of the LDCs.
The 14 LDCs in the Asia-Pacific region for the purposes of Brussels review include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kiribati, Lao PDR, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Yemen , the lone LDC in the Middle East , also participated in the meeting.
Fifteen least developed countries (LDCs) meeting at a high-level United Nations forum today concluded their review of a decade’s worth of international assistance efforts with suggestions that such countries be given a greater voice in the international financial structures and extra consideration on climate change concerns.
The proposal came at the High-level Asia-Pacific Policy Dialogue on the Brussels Programme of Action (BPoA) for the Least Developed Countries held in Dhaka , Bangladesh. The meeting was held to assess and develop a unified position for Asia and the Pacific ahead of a global review next year in Turkey on progress made in implementing the BPoA, which seeks “to make substantial progress toward halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty and suffering from hunger by 2015 and promote the sustainable development of the LDCs.”
In the Dhaka Outcome Document, ministers and senior officials agreed that the food-fuel and financial crises, along with climate change, exposed the acute vulnerabilities of the Asia-Pacific LDCs to external shocks which could derail their development gains.
They said LDCs need to be assisted with enabling them to benefit from the opportunities arising from trade, investment and financial flows. LDCs also must be represented on the Financial Stability Board established by the G20 and that the reform of the international financial architecture must ensure greater representation of LDCs in the international financial institutions.
Among other provisions in their statement, the officials noted that LDCs are at the frontline of the effects of climate change and should be given due priority in the provision of resources promised in the Copenhagen climate talks last December.
Noeleen Heyzer, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), said the Dhaka meeting represented a turning point in addressing the development issues and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region.
“It constitutes a regional position in support of the interests and aspirations of the Asia-Pacific LDCs to build an inclusive and sustainable development part in partnership with their development partners from the region and beyond,” she said.
The three-day meeting discussed issues and concerns related to reducing poverty and hunger by promoting sustainable and inclusive development in the LDCs; promoting food security through sustainable agriculture; and enhancing the share of LDCs in global trade, aid and financial flows and promoting their productive capacity. Talks will also look at protecting the environment and reducing the vulnerability of the LDCs to climate change, and developing human and institutional capacities to support inclusive and sustainable development of the LDCs.
The 14 LDCs in the Asia-Pacific region for the purposes of Brussels review include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kiribati, Lao PDR, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Yemen , the lone LDC in the Middle East , also participated in the meeting.
Advanced Psychology in Branding & Marketing Workshop 2010 26
‘Psychology in Branding and Marketing’ is the body of knowledge which allows you to see more clearly who your customers are and what are going on inside their minds. With deep understanding on the fundamental of customers’ psychological process, you are enabled to use such practical knowledge to foresee what influence customers’ decision and action, therefore how to effectively shape them to certain directions. Without some adequate understanding, however, marketers tend to think, plan and implement ‘me too’ marketing strategies and programs. They can only be followers. Mastering psychological know-why & know-how, the well-versed marketers will therefore be in a position to create superior branding and marketing campaigns and they will always stay at the cutting edge, far ahead of their competitors. The simple reason is that they are so well equipped to remain innovative at all times with the knowledge of ‘Advanced Psychology in Branding & Marketing’.
Dr. Kriengsin Prasongsukarn, Managing Director, Inspire Research, is widely recognized a marketing expert of Thailand. His teaching capability in leading advanced marketing conferences and workshops has been acclaimed both in Thailand and Australia. Dr. Kriengsin’s outstanding consultancy profiles at Inspire Research include marketing planning, strategy as well as supervising quantitative and qualitative research activities for Honda Motorcycle, Honda Car, TCC Capital Land, Prudential TS Standard Charter, Major Development, General Candy, KBANK, The Crown Property of Bureau , Thai Plastic and Chemicals (TPC),Dr. Kriengsin currently serves in the Board of Director of Thailand’s Marketing Research Society.
Dr. Kriengsin Prasongsukarn, Managing Director, Inspire Research, is widely recognized a marketing expert of Thailand. His teaching capability in leading advanced marketing conferences and workshops has been acclaimed both in Thailand and Australia. Dr. Kriengsin’s outstanding consultancy profiles at Inspire Research include marketing planning, strategy as well as supervising quantitative and qualitative research activities for Honda Motorcycle, Honda Car, TCC Capital Land, Prudential TS Standard Charter, Major Development, General Candy, KBANK, The Crown Property of Bureau , Thai Plastic and Chemicals (TPC),Dr. Kriengsin currently serves in the Board of Director of Thailand’s Marketing Research Society.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Article Looks At The Long-Term Effects Of The Recent Credit Crisis
In the wake of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, there has been much discussion about the prospects for an economic recovery over the next few quarters. But an article published yesterday by Standard & Poor's says that the more important issue is: What will happen over the next few decades? The article, which is titled "The New Normal (The Future Isn't What It Used To Be)," says that Standard & Poor's believes it will be a decade or more before the world and U.S. economies can hope to grow as rapidly as they did during the half-century or so preceding the recent crisis because they will have to bear increasing burdens. These will likely include:
--High personal debt and lower wealth in the U.S., which--combined with a rebounding though still-low saving rate--will slow the consumer spending that has powered much of U.S. and world growth.
--International trade and financial imbalances that are leading to a weaker dollar and a move away from dollar reserves.
--Stricter but inconsistent financial and other government regulation.
--A global financial system that has lost much of its capital and will need to operate with lower leverage, restricting loan availability.
--More risk-averse investors (some suddenly conservative because of recent losses, others approaching retirement and husbanding their wealth).
--Fiscal deficits in many countries, especially the U.S., the deficit of which could grow larger as the retirement wave hits.
--Rising health care costs that threaten the competitiveness of U.S. companies versus their overseas counterparts.
"We expect that the world economy will recover," said Standard & Poor's Chief Economist David Wyss. "But we think it's likely that it will look different once it does." For example, the events of the past two years likely have accelerated the relative decline in U.S. economic influence, as Asian economies have continued to grow while America's has contracted. In past decades, however, the U.S. and world economies have proved resilient. So while the future isn't as bright it seemed during the bygone boom, neither is it as bleak as it seemed only a year ago.
This article is part of a special report titled "The New Normal," which also will be published in the Jan. 27, 2010, edition of Standard & Poor's CreditWeek. The special report examines how certain industry sectors and financial markets could fundamentally change as a result of the recent credit crisis.
The report is available to RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal subscribers at www.globalcreditportal.com and RatingsDirect subscribers at www.ratingsdirect.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to research_request@standardandpoors.com. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.
--High personal debt and lower wealth in the U.S., which--combined with a rebounding though still-low saving rate--will slow the consumer spending that has powered much of U.S. and world growth.
--International trade and financial imbalances that are leading to a weaker dollar and a move away from dollar reserves.
--Stricter but inconsistent financial and other government regulation.
--A global financial system that has lost much of its capital and will need to operate with lower leverage, restricting loan availability.
--More risk-averse investors (some suddenly conservative because of recent losses, others approaching retirement and husbanding their wealth).
--Fiscal deficits in many countries, especially the U.S., the deficit of which could grow larger as the retirement wave hits.
--Rising health care costs that threaten the competitiveness of U.S. companies versus their overseas counterparts.
"We expect that the world economy will recover," said Standard & Poor's Chief Economist David Wyss. "But we think it's likely that it will look different once it does." For example, the events of the past two years likely have accelerated the relative decline in U.S. economic influence, as Asian economies have continued to grow while America's has contracted. In past decades, however, the U.S. and world economies have proved resilient. So while the future isn't as bright it seemed during the bygone boom, neither is it as bleak as it seemed only a year ago.
This article is part of a special report titled "The New Normal," which also will be published in the Jan. 27, 2010, edition of Standard & Poor's CreditWeek. The special report examines how certain industry sectors and financial markets could fundamentally change as a result of the recent credit crisis.
The report is available to RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal subscribers at www.globalcreditportal.com and RatingsDirect subscribers at www.ratingsdirect.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to research_request@standardandpoors.com. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.
East and South Asia leading recovery of world economy from recession, UN
Press conference to launch new report at 2:30 p.m. on 20 January at FCCT
Governments in East and South Asia undertook aggressive monetary and fiscal measures to respond to the global economic crisis of the last two years, resulting in both regions leading the world’s recovery out of recession, according to a new United Nations report.
The “World Economic Situation and Prospects” (WESP) projects East Asian economic growth of 6.7 per cent this year, the highest among all regions of the world, and South Asian economies coming in second with an expected growth of 5.5 per cent.
Both regions are rebounding from weak – but not calamitous – growth rates last year: East Asia recorded a rise of 4.3 per cent in 2009, following 6.3 per cent in 2008 and 9.3 per cent in 2007. In South Asia, the comparable rates were 4.1 per cent in 2009, 6.2 per cent in 2008 and 9.6 per cent in 2007. Each region’s 2007 growth rate was its highest for the entire decade beginning in 2000.
Tiziana Bonapace, Chief of the Macroeconomic Policy and Analysis Section at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), will introduce the report along with Aynul Hasan, Chief of the Development Policy Section at ESCAP, at a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, 20 January at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand (FCCT) in Bangkok.
The WESP warns that the mild global recovery projected in the baseline outlook is subject to high risks and uncertainties, mainly on the downside.
The first is the risk of a premature “exit” from the stimulus measures in the major economies which could abort the still nascent recovery. The second relates to the risk of a re-emergence of the global macroeconomic imbalances which were part of the problem in the first place and could erode confidence in the United States dollar. These risks could become sources of renewed instabilities and cause a double-dip global recession which would affect the countries in East and South Asia given their dependence on world trade and finance.
While recognizing the important steps taken by the G20, the UN report calls for more intensive and inclusive international macroeconomic policy coordination. It also calls for deep systemic reforms in financial regulation and the global reserve system to ensure a more balanced and sustainable path of global economic growth.
Governments in East and South Asia undertook aggressive monetary and fiscal measures to respond to the global economic crisis of the last two years, resulting in both regions leading the world’s recovery out of recession, according to a new United Nations report.
The “World Economic Situation and Prospects” (WESP) projects East Asian economic growth of 6.7 per cent this year, the highest among all regions of the world, and South Asian economies coming in second with an expected growth of 5.5 per cent.
Both regions are rebounding from weak – but not calamitous – growth rates last year: East Asia recorded a rise of 4.3 per cent in 2009, following 6.3 per cent in 2008 and 9.3 per cent in 2007. In South Asia, the comparable rates were 4.1 per cent in 2009, 6.2 per cent in 2008 and 9.6 per cent in 2007. Each region’s 2007 growth rate was its highest for the entire decade beginning in 2000.
Tiziana Bonapace, Chief of the Macroeconomic Policy and Analysis Section at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), will introduce the report along with Aynul Hasan, Chief of the Development Policy Section at ESCAP, at a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, 20 January at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand (FCCT) in Bangkok.
The WESP warns that the mild global recovery projected in the baseline outlook is subject to high risks and uncertainties, mainly on the downside.
The first is the risk of a premature “exit” from the stimulus measures in the major economies which could abort the still nascent recovery. The second relates to the risk of a re-emergence of the global macroeconomic imbalances which were part of the problem in the first place and could erode confidence in the United States dollar. These risks could become sources of renewed instabilities and cause a double-dip global recession which would affect the countries in East and South Asia given their dependence on world trade and finance.
While recognizing the important steps taken by the G20, the UN report calls for more intensive and inclusive international macroeconomic policy coordination. It also calls for deep systemic reforms in financial regulation and the global reserve system to ensure a more balanced and sustainable path of global economic growth.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Corporate Governance in Banks and Insurance Companies: The Experience of Kosovo
Private Enterprise
Riinvest Institute
December 15, 2009
Article at a Glance:
Riinvest Institute’s survey of corporate governance practices in the Kosovar financial system reveals improvements in transparency, disclosure, and shareholder rights over the last decade.
Improvements are lacking in the area of board composition and relations with stakeholders, especially the business community.
Lack of attention on the part of financial institutions to the views and needs of businesses is damaging to Kosovo’s economic development prospects.
Government should encourage more competition in the financial sector and take actions to improve the supply and affordability of credit to the private sector.
Read this and other Economic Reform Feature Service articles online at http://www.cipe.org/featureservice
Riinvest Institute
December 15, 2009
Article at a Glance:
Riinvest Institute’s survey of corporate governance practices in the Kosovar financial system reveals improvements in transparency, disclosure, and shareholder rights over the last decade.
Improvements are lacking in the area of board composition and relations with stakeholders, especially the business community.
Lack of attention on the part of financial institutions to the views and needs of businesses is damaging to Kosovo’s economic development prospects.
Government should encourage more competition in the financial sector and take actions to improve the supply and affordability of credit to the private sector.
Read this and other Economic Reform Feature Service articles online at http://www.cipe.org/featureservice
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