Sunday, February 7, 2010

“THAI CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN FOURTH QUARTER OF 2009 REACHED THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008” SAYS NIELSEN

THAI Consumer MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PERSONAL FINANCES AND JOB SECURITY IN 2010 But Spending Still Restrained


Consumer confidence in Thailand during the fourth quarter 2009 reached its highest level since mid 2008, driven by improved job prospects and better personal finances, according to the Global Consumer Confidence Survey released today by The Nielsen Company.

An increase in consumer confidence in Asian markets, as well as Brazil, continues to reflect signs that the economy is emerging from a global recession and, in some markets, the recovery is accelerating, according to the latest survey. Results of the Nielsen survey highlighted that consumer confidence gains in markets recovering fastest from recession – including Hong Kong, China, Singapore, India and Brazil – have fueled renewed willingness to spend by many consumers as they head into 2010.

While eight of the top 10 most confident markets in the fourth quarter of 2009 came from Asia Pacific, including emerging markets Indonesia (ranked 1st) and India (ranked 2nd), consumers in two of Asia’s most developed markets, South Korea and Japan, were the least confident. Brazil (ranked 3rd) and Canada (ranked 10th) were the only countries outside of Asia to make the top 10.

In Asia Pacific, Hong Kong recorded the highest consumer confidence increase for the second consecutive quarter in quarter four (Q4) – up seven index points from 93 in Q3 2009 to 100 (on a scale of 0 to 200 Index points) in Q4. Confidence in Hong Kong rose a total of 21 points since June 2009.

Globally, between June and December last year, the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index rose five points from 82 to 87 while consumer confidence in Thailand increased nine points from 86 to 95.

The Nielsen survey shows that consumers in the past six months have become more optimistic about their country emerging from recession with better job prospects and personal finances. This is another sign that global recovery is heading in the right direction.

In Thailand, Nielsen found consumers became more optimistic about the economy in the fourth quarter of 2009. The percentage of Thais who said they believe the country is currently in a recession dropped for the fourth consecutive quarter– down from 91 percent in Q1 to 70 percent in Q4 of 2009.

Aaron Cross, Managing Director of The Nielsen Company, Thailand said “A year ago the world was in free-fall and consumer confidence hit an all time low in Nielsen’s global index. Thai consumer confidence also plummeted to it lowest record in Q1 2009. Since the Thai government reacted quickly to implement a significant stimulus program we have seen the consumer confidence index continue to rise throughout the year of 2009 showing an increase from 81 in Q1 to 86 in Q2 and 94 in Q3”.
Thai Consumers More Optimistic About Personal Finances

More than half (55%) of Thai consumers surveyed said their personal financial outlook for 2010 will be excellent or good compared to 45 percent last June.

Asia is also leading the way in increased discretionary spending. Chinese consumers topped global rankings (in discretionary spending) for investing in stocks and mutual funds and new technology products, and are ranked second globally for spending on new clothes and holidays. Thai consumers, however are not ready to start spending yet with 64 percent saying now is not a good time to spend - up from 60 percent in Q3.
Job Prospects Looking Up

The economy remains the top concern of Thai consumers however the concern for job security continued to decline in Q4 2009. In December 2009, 40 percent of Thai consumers described job prospects for 2010 as excellent or good compared with only 15 percent in Q1 2009, 27 percent in Q2 2009 and 38 percent in Q3 2009.
How do Thais utilize spare cash?

Thai consumers are cautious about discretionary spending. After covering necessary living expenses, Thais continue to put their spare cash into savings (59%). This has been the favorite mode of spare cash utilization for Thais since the year of 2006. After savings, holidays/vacations (47%) investing in retirement funds (30%), and home improvement and decoration (28%) were the three most popular spending options.
Discretionary spending

According to Nielsen’s survey on consumer behavior, Thai consumers will cut back on the following expenses

Spend less on new clothes (64%)Cut down on out of home entertainment (58%)Try to save on gas and electricity (55%)Delay upgrading technology, e.g. PC, mobile phone (44%)Cut down on holidays/ short breaks (42%)
About the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey

The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted between December 4 -18, 2009 and polled over 17,500 consumers in Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North America about their confidence levels and economic outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidence in the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%.
About The Nielsen Company

The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications. The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA.

Momentum likely to fade in second half of 2010, making stock picking increasingly important

Asian markets rallied strongly last year, spurred by government stimulus measures and liquidity-driven buying. While this trend is likely to carry through into the first half of 2010, Aberdeen Asset Management believes that the second half of 2010 will be altogether more challenging.


The key risks are in the timing of governments as they exit unorthodox stimulus strategies and what happens as monetary policy tightens across the region in response to rising inflation, according to Adam McCabe, Senior Portfolio Manager on the fixed income.

He believes that the consequences of any mis-step could be huge and predicts policy-makers would rather wait too long than do the opposite and risk a ‘double-dip’ recession. Easy money is leading to the risk of asset bubbles, for example in various property markets across Asia, and elsewhere across emerging markets as policy makers maintain loose monetary policy.

Although rising interest rates are outwardly negative for bonds, Aberdeen sees selective opportunities because not every development appears priced in.

“We are long Asian currencies generally, with any short term periods of USD strength providing an entry point for our preferred trades in the Korean won, Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee. We also find relative value in Asian investment grade bonds versus US and European investment grade bonds. And Asian banks in particular look cheap versus European and US banks, leading us to take an overweight position on financials,”
Mr Adam summarised.

His theme of greater discrimination was echoed by Kwok Chern-Yeh, Investment Manager on the Asian equity team, who says stock-picking will gain in importance as buying momentum fades.

“We’re seeing investors start to pay more attention to company fundamentals. It’s really not yet clear how the recent pick-up in earnings may have been flattered by the inventory bounce and cost-cutting. Valuations suggest the markets are due for a pull-back. The trouble is the weight of money coming in, or waiting to do so, remains considerable and may lead to new highs in the near term.”

Mr Kwok Chern-Yeh affirmed Aberdeen style was to focus on defensive, cash rich names with strong franchises. BHP Billiton and Hindustan Lever, for example, were new additions to its model regional portfolio in 2009.

Mr.Chaikaseam Vadhanasiripong , Head of Funds Distribution, Aberdeen Asset Management Company Limited said “Overall Aberdeen anticipates more subdued asset market returns in 2010 versus 2009 because global recovery will be constrained by G3 delevering, ensuring that export levels won’t return to pre-crisis levels for a long time. It foresees growth in emerging market economies leading that of developed economies over the next three to five years, and Asia in turn leading emerging markets

The company aims to offer an outstanding pure asset management business that is well-diversified by territory, channel, and product. Our investment expertise is the management of client portfolios in equities and fix income from a fundamental perspective. This forms the basis of our core investment competence. Our business direction is to build long-term relationships with our clients and partners through strong performance and first-class client service”

For Thailand, Aberdeen will continue to reinforce our position as the leader in equity funds, especially FIF funds, by providing superior products, services, and direct accessibility to our fund managers from around the globe. Also, we've launched several services such as Monthly Investment Plan, Multi-redemption accounts, Internet Online Channel redesign to provide more convenient and to enhance clients' experience.

Mr. Chaikaseam added “For new business opportunities, we intent to develop our investment capability and distribution platforms in order to enter new markets and segments where we may have a competitive and sustainable edge. Last but not least, we will continue to educate investors on fundamental-driven long term investment approach via articles, interviews, mass media, and public seminars.”
About Aberdeen Asset Management Group

Aberdeen Asset Management manages over US$232.2 bn* of third party assets from its offices around the world. At Aberdeen, asset management is our sole business. We operate independently and only manage assets for third parties, allowing us to focus only on their needs, without conflicts of interest. Our clients access our investment expertise across the three asset classes: equities, fixed income and property. We package our skills in the form of segregated and pooled products across borders. We invest worldwide and follow a predominantly long-only approach, based on fundamentally sound investments – we do not chase market fads.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Global Corporate And Sovereign Rating Actions Hit 23-Year High Of 1,560 In 2009, Article Says

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded 1,298 global issuers and upgraded 262. The 1,560 total rating actions is the most taken in a single year since our series began in 1987, including the previous record high of 1,207 downgrades and 222 upgrades in 2001, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research, titled "Global Corporate And Sovereign Rating Actions: Fourth-Quarter 2009 (Premium)."


Of the rating actions in 2009, 62% were based in the U.S., 16% were based in Europe, 15% were based in the emerging markets, and 8% were based in the other developed region (Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand).

"With the exception of the emerging markets, each region saw their downgrade ratios peak in the first quarter and then taper off before hitting lows for the year in the fourth quarter," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research. "The emerging markets' downgrade ratio peaked in the second quarter at 97%."

Of the industries that had more than five rating actions globally in 2009, finance companies, automotive, banks, sovereigns, forest products and building materials, capital goods, and media and entertainment all had downgrade ratios of 90% or higher for the year. Health care performed the best in 2009, with a downgrade ratio of only 33%--less than half the average across all sectors.

This article is part of our premium Global Fixed Income Research content, which is available to premium subscribers to RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com and to RatingsDirect at www.ratingsdirect.com. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Moody's says Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings demonstrating resiliency

Moody's Investors Service says in its just-published "Asia-Pacific Regional Outlook - January 2010" that regional sovereign ratings will likely remain resilient to economic risks coming to the foreground as the global economy recovers from the crisis that emanated from the US and Europe.


Regional rating trends were generally positive in 2009 with no downgrades originating exclusively from the global crisis. Indeed, Indonesia and the Philippines were upgraded to Ba2 and Ba3, respectively, last year, while A1 China, Aa2 Hong Kong, and India (its Ba2 local currency government rating only) have positive outlooks.

The three countries with negative outlooks -- Baa1 Thailand, Ba3 Vietnam and B1 Fiji -- have long-standing underlying imbalances or political tensions which precede the onset of the global crisis.

Growth potential in the Asia-Pacific remains robust, benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus programs, liquid banking systems capable of extending credit, intra-regional trade, and foreign exchange reserve defenses built up after the Asian financial crisis of late 1990s.

"Moreover, recovery from the global crisis is appearing similar to previous recovery periods, in contrast to prospects for a sluggish rebound in the US and EU," says Tom Byrne, a Senior Vice President and Regional Credit Officer in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.

"Despite the crucial role played by fiscal stimulus programs in supporting growth in 2009, most Asia-Pacific countries (ex-Japan) have begun or will likely start to wind down expansionary policies this year," says Byrne.

"Because of relatively less encumbered public finances in the region, with the exception of Japan, the build-up in debt over the past couple of years has been relatively moderate, a key factor in supporting the generally positive trend in ratings in Asia-Pacific," says Byrne. "Also, most countries' fiscal positions can absorb a moderate rise in interest rates in the year ahead," Byrne added.

Moody's notes that China is playing a lead role as a driver of growth in the region, while Japan sits on the sideline as it struggles to overcome stubborn deflation and lackluster domestic demand.

Despite the subdued outlook for Japan, the weakest in the region, Asia-Pacific GDP growth may reach 4.9 percent in 2010, up from 1.2 percent in 2009 and slightly stronger than previous recovery periods in
1999 and 2002.

Accordingly, the growth outlook for Asia-Pacific is more robust than that of Europe or Latin America. Excluding Japan, regional GDP growth is expected to be even stronger at 6.6 percent in 2010. This economic robustness has also underpinned the relatively positive rating trend in the region.

Risks to the economic outlook for the region include a relapse in the recovery in external trade and a rise in inflation. The latter could prove challenging to regional policymakers with the return of risk appetite and strong capital inflows, and could prompt more urgent exit strategies from counter-cyclical policies.

In addition, an endogenous risk to the regional outlook is an asset bubble which careens into a boom-bust cycle in China. Moody's central scenario, however, is that regional governments and monetary authorities will maintain a grip on policy, squeezing as tight as needed to prevent an inflationary destabilization.

The January 2010 edition of the "Asia-Pacific Sovereign Outlook" is the first of a regular publication explaining Moody's views and perspectives on sovereign ratings in the region. It is one of three regional outlooks being published by Moody's Sovereign Risk Group this month, the other two covering Latin America and Europe.

Two other regular reports further detail Moody's perspectives on sovereign ratings, the quarterly "Aaa Sovereign Monitor", which focuses on the highest-rated sovereigns, and the annual "Sovereign Risk Outlook", which provides a year-end review of global sovereign ratings activity and perspectives for the coming year. The latest editions of these reports were published in December 2009.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Least developed countries conclude high-level UN meeting with call for greater say in global financial structures

Climate change also significant issue for Asia-Pacific nations

Fifteen least developed countries (LDCs) meeting at a high-level United Nations forum today concluded their review of a decade’s worth of international assistance efforts with suggestions that such countries be given a greater voice in the international financial structures and extra consideration on climate change concerns.


The proposal came at the High-level Asia-Pacific Policy Dialogue on the Brussels Programme of Action (BPoA) for the Least Developed Countries held in Dhaka , Bangladesh. The meeting was held to assess and develop a unified position for Asia and the Pacific ahead of a global review next year in Turkey on progress made in implementing the BPoA, which seeks “to make substantial progress toward halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty and suffering from hunger by 2015 and promote the sustainable development of the LDCs.”

In the Dhaka Outcome Document, ministers and senior officials agreed that the food-fuel and financial crises, along with climate change, exposed the acute vulnerabilities of the Asia-Pacific LDCs to external shocks which could derail their development gains.

They said LDCs need to be assisted with enabling them to benefit from the opportunities arising from trade, investment and financial flows. LDCs also must be represented on the Financial Stability Board established by the G20 and that the reform of the international financial architecture must ensure greater representation of LDCs in the international financial institutions.

Among other provisions in their statement, the officials noted that LDCs are at the frontline of the effects of climate change and should be given due priority in the provision of resources promised in the Copenhagen climate talks last December.

Noeleen Heyzer, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), said the Dhaka meeting represented a turning point in addressing the development issues and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region.

“It constitutes a regional position in support of the interests and aspirations of the Asia-Pacific LDCs to build an inclusive and sustainable development part in partnership with their development partners from the region and beyond,” she said.

The three-day meeting discussed issues and concerns related to reducing poverty and hunger by promoting sustainable and inclusive development in the LDCs; promoting food security through sustainable agriculture; and enhancing the share of LDCs in global trade, aid and financial flows and promoting their productive capacity. Talks will also look at protecting the environment and reducing the vulnerability of the LDCs to climate change, and developing human and institutional capacities to support inclusive and sustainable development of the LDCs.

The 14 LDCs in the Asia-Pacific region for the purposes of Brussels review include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kiribati, Lao PDR, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Yemen , the lone LDC in the Middle East , also participated in the meeting.

Advanced Psychology in Branding & Marketing Workshop 2010 26

‘Psychology in Branding and Marketing’ is the body of knowledge which allows you to see more clearly who your customers are and what are going on inside their minds. With deep understanding on the fundamental of customers’ psychological process, you are enabled to use such practical knowledge to foresee what influence customers’ decision and action, therefore how to effectively shape them to certain directions. Without some adequate understanding, however, marketers tend to think, plan and implement ‘me too’ marketing strategies and programs. They can only be followers. Mastering psychological know-why & know-how, the well-versed marketers will therefore be in a position to create superior branding and marketing campaigns and they will always stay at the cutting edge, far ahead of their competitors. The simple reason is that they are so well equipped to remain innovative at all times with the knowledge of ‘Advanced Psychology in Branding & Marketing’.

Dr. Kriengsin Prasongsukarn, Managing Director, Inspire Research, is widely recognized a marketing expert of Thailand. His teaching capability in leading advanced marketing conferences and workshops has been acclaimed both in Thailand and Australia. Dr. Kriengsin’s outstanding consultancy profiles at Inspire Research include marketing planning, strategy as well as supervising quantitative and qualitative research activities for Honda Motorcycle, Honda Car, TCC Capital Land, Prudential TS Standard Charter, Major Development, General Candy, KBANK, The Crown Property of Bureau , Thai Plastic and Chemicals (TPC),Dr. Kriengsin currently serves in the Board of Director of Thailand’s Marketing Research Society.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Article Looks At The Long-Term Effects Of The Recent Credit Crisis

In the wake of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, there has been much discussion about the prospects for an economic recovery over the next few quarters. But an article published yesterday by Standard & Poor's says that the more important issue is: What will happen over the next few decades? The article, which is titled "The New Normal (The Future Isn't What It Used To Be)," says that Standard & Poor's believes it will be a decade or more before the world and U.S. economies can hope to grow as rapidly as they did during the half-century or so preceding the recent crisis because they will have to bear increasing burdens. These will likely include:


--High personal debt and lower wealth in the U.S., which--combined with a rebounding though still-low saving rate--will slow the consumer spending that has powered much of U.S. and world growth.

--International trade and financial imbalances that are leading to a weaker dollar and a move away from dollar reserves.
--Stricter but inconsistent financial and other government regulation.

--A global financial system that has lost much of its capital and will need to operate with lower leverage, restricting loan availability.

--More risk-averse investors (some suddenly conservative because of recent losses, others approaching retirement and husbanding their wealth).

--Fiscal deficits in many countries, especially the U.S., the deficit of which could grow larger as the retirement wave hits.

--Rising health care costs that threaten the competitiveness of U.S. companies versus their overseas counterparts.

"We expect that the world economy will recover," said Standard & Poor's Chief Economist David Wyss. "But we think it's likely that it will look different once it does." For example, the events of the past two years likely have accelerated the relative decline in U.S. economic influence, as Asian economies have continued to grow while America's has contracted. In past decades, however, the U.S. and world economies have proved resilient. So while the future isn't as bright it seemed during the bygone boom, neither is it as bleak as it seemed only a year ago.

This article is part of a special report titled "The New Normal," which also will be published in the Jan. 27, 2010, edition of Standard & Poor's CreditWeek. The special report examines how certain industry sectors and financial markets could fundamentally change as a result of the recent credit crisis.

The report is available to RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal subscribers at www.globalcreditportal.com and RatingsDirect subscribers at www.ratingsdirect.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to research_request@standardandpoors.com. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.