Businessmen dampen recovery hopes

       Business leaders have warned local companies against excessive optimism from improving global and Thai economic indicators, as uncertainties remain while some key sectors have yet to improve.
       In the worst case, Thai gross domestic product in the fourth quarter may see no increase from last year and global recovery is still uncertain, said Pramon Sutivong, former chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade.
       "Improving economic figures being released are the result of stimulus packages introduced globally. We are hoping the gradual global rebound will keep its momentum throughout the rest of the year to drive the economic recovery by the first quarter of next year onwards,"said Mr Pramon.
       "But as long as confidence among consumers across the globe has yet to revive, the world's economic climate will remain worrisome," he said in a forum on human capital hosted by Siam Cement Group (SCG) yesterday.
       The global economy - and especially export-driven economies like Thailand - will see much slower recovery from the current recession than from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, said Mr Pramon.
       But some sectors have bounced back.The automotive industry, for example,is now projected to lose 10% in the latter half, versus the contraction of nearly 30% recorded in the first six months.
       "If so, the industry would decline 20%on average for all 2009, which is not bad when the global economy is severely hit by recession," said Mr Pramon, also the chairman of Toyota Motor Thailand.
       Kannikar Chalitaporn, the president of Siam Commercial Bank, cautioned about economic challenges in the next six months, noting that the tourism sector has yet to rebound from the crisis.
       "Europe will recover more slowly than the US, which has seen consumption decline considerably. Even though Southeast Asia has become a major destination of Thai-made goods, the region still relies on exports to the US and Europe," she said.
       Tourism, which accounts for 6% of the Thai economy and employs hundreds of thousands, has yet to see bookings recover for the final quarter, normally the high season, she said.
       Santi Vilassakdanont, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration's economic stimulus is projected to drive the Thai economy to resume positive growth in the first quarter of next year.
       "However, political stability still matters for business confidence. As well,economic stimulus programmes must be implemented in transparent and effective ways," said Mr Santi.
       Mr Pramon said political changes,either a house dissolution or the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit, could dampen prospects for the Thai economy.
       "Changing the premier would not help end the conflicts and it actually wastes a lot of time," he said."Mr Abhisit is not stupid, and I think he is the best choice for the country at the moment."